“It is a matter of history that incumbent governments find it nigh on impossible to win seats off an opposition at a by-election. For the last 100 years or so no government, of either political persuasion, has won a seat off an opposition at a by-election.”
What RMIT ABC Fact Check found
Senator Cormann is correct. The last time an opposition lost a seat to a government at a by-election was in 1920 — almost 100 years ago. The previous MP in that by-election, Hugh Mahon, remains the only member in the history of the House of Representatives to be expelled. He recontested the seat and lost. However, whilst by-elections on average swing towards the opposition of the day, experts told Fact Check that there are a minority of historical cases where the government of the day has ach...
Their words, from the summary they publish with the rating.
In short
Mathias Cormann (Special Minister of State) made this claim around 17 June 2018. RMIT ABC Fact Check (Australia) looked into it and published its finding on 27 July 2018, 40 days later. Its rating was “Correct”.
Where the claim appeared
- financeminister.gov.auhttps://www.financeminister.gov.au/transcript/2018/06/17/abc-news-%E2%80%93-national-wrap
Links recorded by RMIT ABC Fact Check. Some posts may have been deleted since.
This check was done by RMIT ABC Fact Check, not by DoesItStand. We list it so you can find it. Their full evidence and reasoning are in their article.