“When you have unemployment below 4% and inflation above 4%, recession always follows within two years.”
Larry Summers
Harvard economist. an interview with Barron's. Claim dated 16 Jun 2022.
PolitiFact rated thisMostly False
What PolitiFact found
The data Summers based this on did find the likelihood of a recession at 100% under these conditions. However, these conditions almost never occur. They’ve been seen in just a handful of quarters since 1955.
Their words, from the summary they publish with the rating.
In short
Larry Summers (Harvard economist) made this claim around 16 June 2022. PolitiFact (United States) looked into it and published its finding on 23 June 2022, 7 days later. Its rating was “Mostly False”.
Where the claim appeared
- barrons.comhttps://www.barrons.com/articles/larry-summers-economy-fed-hard-landing-inflation-recessi…
Links recorded by PolitiFact. Some posts may have been deleted since.
This check was done by PolitiFact, not by DoesItStand. We list it so you can find it. Their full evidence and reasoning are in their article.